A Dynamic, Risk-Based Perspective on Natural and Induced Earthquakes

ABSTRACT:  Earthquakes cannot currently be predicted, and we may never be able to do so. However, we can assess seismic hazard and seismic risk with increasing skill and use this information to help societies make informed decisions about how best to protect themselves against earthquakes. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) released the first national risk model in 2023, an unusual step for a seismological service, but one that has proven impactful by triggering, for example, discussions about the need for and optimal implementation of earthquake insurance. We also know that earthquakes not only respond to external forces, tectonic forcing in the case of natural earthquakes and human-induced changes in the case of anthropogenic earthquakes but also interact with one another. Scientists can partially understand and describe these interactions using physics-based and statistical models, enabling increasingly skillful time-dependent forecasting of natural and induced earthquakes. We can compute time-dependent hazard, and even time-dependent risk, and use these assessments to inform decision-makers and the public. This talk explores the state of the art in time-dependent hazard and risk assessment in Switzerland and beyond. It highlights both the progress that has been made and the challenges that remain. Finally, it looks ahead to new research opportunities, from agent-based AI built on digital twins for disaster risk mitigation to earthquake rupture experiments in the BedrettoLab.

BIO: Stefan Wiemer is a geophysicist and seismologist who serves as Director of the Swiss